Opening Day for the 2017 season is finally upon us.
Months of following rumors, trades, acquisitions and news around the league have all led us to this point. Your college football and basketball teams have disappointed you, and it is finally time to turn the page to the only true ‘Opening Day’ in sports. Today is the start of the 1 of 162 march through spring, summer, and fall. Six months, and hopefully a full seventh. Buckle up, because it’s going to be one hell of a baseball season.
Opening Day always stirs up a multitude of feelings in baseball fans. From the nostalgia that comes with visiting a ballpark for the inaugural game of the season to the ‘hope springs eternal’ optimism that abounds on Opening Day, everyone seems to be in a good mood. I will only mention, as many others have a few years ago (including Ozzie Smith!), that this should be in consideration as a national holiday. As the season gets underway today, I wanted to run through some Rangers story-lines that will likely dictate how the team fares in 2017, as well as a few story-lines from their AL West division rivals.
Rangers 2017 story-lines—Shutdown Inning will touch on these throughout the season as they develop. These are in no particular order.
- Nomar Mazara‘s sophomore campaign. Does Mazara take the next step into stardom in his second season, at age 22, by improving on his first half (.282/.330/420), or does the second half of the 2016 season prove to be more of what to expect from the youngster (.242/.306/.417)? Mazara will be a key cog of this 2017 Rangers team and will likely hit in an important spot in the lineup behind the damage bats of Adrian Beltre, Mike Napoli and Rougned Odor.
- New rotation acquisitions Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross. When do Cashner and Ross make their Rangers debuts? Can they stay healthy enough to contribute positively? Ross started 30+ games from 2013-2015 before missing last season, putting up ERAs of 3.17, 2.81 and 3.26 respectively. If Cashner can provide 100+ innings at slightly better than league average ERA (4.19 was the league average in 2016), and Ross can stay healthy after debuting, the Rangers should be in great shape. Two big question marks, though—of course.
- Cole Hamels‘ production. Was Hamels’ late season fade (5.86 ERA in Sept/Oct) a sign of things to come, or a blip on the radar? Hamels’ fastball velocity was 88-91 in late spring training; will that be an issue moving forward? Hamels relies on a devastating change-up to be at his best. If the fastball and change-up are not thrown at drastically different speeds, that will be an issue. These will be things to look for early in the season.
- Newly-extended Rougned Odor. How does Odor respond to his freshly signed extension? Nobody expects that he will lose any of his fire or intensity, but will he become at least a slightly more patient hitter in 2017? Look for signs of this early in the season. He walked 19 times in 632 plate appearances last season (3.0% walk rate, making him the lowest qualifier in MLB). This lack of patience and his sub-par defense are what could hold him back from being a full-blown superstar, even at his young age.
- Adrian Beltre‘s March injuries. Beltre will begin the season on the 10-day disable list, retroactive to March 30; how far will the injury linger into the seaon? Knowing Beltre, the injury should not hold him out much past early April. That said, can Beltre defy ‘Father Time’ for another 140+ games at age 38? Beltre’s pursuit of 3,000 hits will be a local and national story-line as he approaches the number, likely in June if he is healthy. Beltre should also easily surpass 600 doubles (he could end the season in the top 11 all-time) and 1,600 RBI this season (putting him in the top 35 all-time).
- Multi-position eligibility of Ryan Rua and Jurickson Profar. If I were ranking these story-lines, I think this may be tops on my list as far as intrigue. How does Banister deploy his multi-tools, Rua and Profar, throughout the season? Both players impressed this spring (in Arizona and the WBC). Look for both players to be moved around in order to get their bats in the lineup as much as Banister can, perhaps forming platoons in LF, CF, or 1B with other players, or allowing players to take a “half-day” at DH a few times per week. Having these types of players gives the manager so much versatility to make lineup decisions—as long as they are producing well. An added bonus is this: whoever is not in the starting lineup, between these two players and the next I am going to discuss, will be able to impact the games as a pinch hitter or runner late in games—something the Rangers have lacked in recent years. Also, should a player go down with an injury, Rua and Profar (and DeShields) can be above-average fill-ins at most positions compared to the rest of the league.
- Delino DeShields‘ possible re-emergence. Does DeShields parlay his big spring and new physique into a bounce-back year and give the Rangers a speed component that is a glaring weakness of the current roster? Does Banister start Delino in LF over Rua or Profar? How does he fit into the starting lineup construction? DeShields is a real X-factor if his 2017 Arizona performance was not a fluke.
- Shin-Soo Choo is damn good when healthy. Can Choo stay healthy for a sustained period of time as he did in 2015 (.838 OPS)? Also, will being deployed as mostly a DH affect his numbers (positively or negatively) and keep him healthy? Choo gives the Rangers something that is sorely lacking from a lot of the lineup besides Napoli: walks, and patience. Slotting Choo into the second spot in the lineup everyday will be crucial to the Rangers success in 2017, as his dynamic bat was sorely missed at times last season.
- Yu Darvish in a contract year. Various pundits, including a number of SDI writers, are speculating that Darvish will win the Cy Young Award in 2017. If he is pitching at that elite level over the entire season, the Rangers will be in a great position to win the division yet again. I expect Darvish to compete for the Cy Young Award if he can make 30+ starts. Signing him to a new deal after the season is a whole other issue at that point, though.
- Possibility of tired bullpen arms. Do the workloads last year for the bullpen studs impact their 2017 effectiveness? Sam Dyson, Matt Bush, Jeremy Jeffress, Tony Barnette and Keone Kela can be one hell of a back-end bullpen (although Kela has apparently stretched workloads longer with a chemistry-related demotion at the end of camp). Keep an eye on workloads and signs of fatigue throughout the 2017 season, as these boys will be relied on hard, especially if Ross and Cashner are delayed in returning to the rotation. A mid-season return of Jake Diekman to the fold would act as an elite trade deadline acquisition.
- If things go south. The story-line that nobody wants to talk about yet – if somehow this all goes bad, and this would mainly be due to injury, the Rangers are well-positioned with high-impact players on expiring deals to dangle as trade chips at the deadline to exchange for high-level talent in return to re-stock for 2018 and beyond.
Quick eye at the AL West competition’s story-lines:
- Astros: Can their off-season acquisitions to bolster their lineup with grizzled veterans (Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, Josh Reddick) cover up a rotation with obvious weaknesses and no clear studs? Can the new veterans pull the young bats of Houston towards their first-ever AL West title? This is an incredibly talented team offensively. The rotation has many question marks though, beginning with 2015 Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel—who followed up that campaign by posting a 4.55 ERA in 2016. The rest of the Astros rotation has promise and upside arms, but has much to prove both in effectiveness and the ability to stay healthy. If the starters can pitch well enough to pass the ball to a very talented bullpen often, the Rangers will have a tough time three-peating in the AL West.
- Mariners: Can the M’s rotation—full of question marks but with high upside—stay healthy enough to stay in the race? Is Felix Hernandez running out of gas (2,400 IP by age 30)? Hisashi Iwakuma was throwing 86 mph fastballs in spring training (he is turning 36 years old next week). Drew Smyly was diagnosed with a flexor strain just before Opening Day and will miss the first two months of the season, at least. Flexor strains are often the first sign of eventual UCL injuries, resulting in Tommy John surgery. Off-season trades for Jarrod Dyson and Jean Segura re-vamped the top of their lineup giving the M’s an entirely new look, and should give their fantastic middle of the order bats more run-scoring opportunities. They will need them if King Felix and Iwakuma have lost anything.
- Angels: Will Garrett Richards and the rotation stay healthy? Richards underwent a stem cell therapy procedure in lieu of Tommy John surgery but was clocked throwing upwards of 97 mph in spring training. Will Mike Trout win a third MVP? Albert Pujols eyes all-time greats on the career home run list. Pujols looks to pass Sammy Sosa and Jim Thome this season, and could end the year in 7th place all-time, if he’s healthy.
- Athletics: Can Sonny Gray get healthy enough to perform in time for the trade deadline? Will Khris Davis hit another 40 bombs? Oakland will trot out an underrated young rotation, as all five projected starters are 28 years old or younger, all with decent upside.
Today signals the start of the longest grind in American sports, one that tests the players but the fans as well (and significant others!). Today every team has the hope—and the Rangers are near the top of that list—of winning a World Series trophy this season. Today marks the start of a new chapter in the story of America’s pastime, as the Rangers are trying to three-peat as American League West Champions. Enjoy the ride everyone.
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